Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
